Maquila owners probably won't pay more, because no one--not their stockholders, not the U.S. or Mexican governments, and not even the workers--will make them.
Until 1994, no product made in a maquiladora could be legally sold in Mexico.
That's changing.
Under a provision of NAFTA, by the year 2001, all the maquila-made pagers, color TVs and other goodies that have been exported straight to the U.S. can be marketed to Mexicans as well.
The trouble is, unless wages for Mexican workers get a booster shot, few will buy those products.
So far, maquila employees have received a fraction of the industry's boom-time profits.
Nearly four years after the peso devaluation, maquila workers have just about regained the dismal purchasing power they had before December 1994.
Last year, wages and fringe benefits for all maquila workers increased an average of 19 percent, compared to Mexico's 14 percent rate of inflation.
Despite that gain, at $1.64 per hour, the average wage and benefits for maquila workers remain among the lowest in the world--less than factory workers in South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, and comparable to Malaysia, where Nike's Air Jordans are made by young women who earn $1.43 an hour.
While NAFTA has yet to substantially raise maquila wages, it has brought more maquiladoras to Mexico, with more on the way.
Beginning in 2001, any business outside the United States, Mexico and Canada that imports a product to North America--including raw materials for maquiladoras--will get slapped with a stiff tax.
As a result, companies outside the North American "free trade zone" are setting up maquiladoras to get around the tariff. Korean and Japanese maquilas, in particular, are demanding their Asian suppliers set up operations in North America.
NAFTA also encourages U.S. and Canadian companies to continue shifting their labor-intensive operations to Mexico. U.S. companies have invested more than $10 billion in maquilas since the agreement was signed.
Both trends are creating more maquila jobs, and more maquila revenue for Mexico.
Last year, maquiladora labor injected more than $8 billion into the country's economy. Some of the money went to pay off Mexico's foreign debt. A portion went to improving the nation's highways, pipelines, airports and railroads. Some, undoubtedly, was spirited away to offshore bank accounts, a la former president Carlos Salinas.
This much is certain: Little of that $8 billion was spent improving the lives of Mexico's working poor.
Pondering the future of maquiladoras and their workers is more than an exercise in social-political theory or a cause for liberal hand-wringing.
The maquilas are a cornerstone in the effort to build a unified regional economy that began in earnest with the signing of NAFTA by Mexico, Canada and the United States.
While far from a political union, NAFTA is essentially merging the three economies into the largest common market in the world, with 380 million consumers.
As we enter this economic wilderness, the pivotal questions are:
Will your life become more like the woman in Nogales who pushed the same button 800 times an hour, for one-tenth of a penny per push? Or will her life become more like yours?
And, perhaps more haunting, is there anything you, or she, or Thayne Hardy can do about it?
Welcome to Naftania.
Contact John Dougherty at his online address: jdougherty@newtimes.com
Contact David Holthouse at his online address: dholthouse@newtimes.com
