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The special exemption given to the Pappas Schools will have to be reauthorized at the time No Child Left Behind expires in two or three years, as Gary Rutkin, the U.S. Department of Education's McKinney-Vento program officer, confirms.
The timetable is up to Congress. But Rutkin's already working on compiling information about his program. Although he doesn't make any predictions, he does indicate that the Pappas Schools' bad academic performance is likely to be an issue.
Numerous studies have detailed how hard it is for homeless students to reach the same academic marks as their peers in more stable environments. But the research seems to be shifting as homeless children are welcomed into real classrooms with full resources.
Indeed, a 2004 study suggests that being homeless affects students in the short term, but its effects are completely mitigated within five years. At that point, the formerly homeless students did no worse than other poor kids.
And while poverty is hardly an easy factor to dismiss, it's far more hopeful to think of homelessness as one factor in many, not the ultimate tragedy.
In fact, a landmark 2001 study from the Journal of School Psychology suggests that the reason so many homeless kids did so badly for years may not have been their homeless status.
The study, published after many schools began integrating homeless kids, found that homeless students did just as well in school as their low-income counterparts with housing.
The kids who were failing weren't necessarily homeless. Instead, they were the kids who changed schools most frequently.
It's a strong argument that the Pappas model isn't going to work, even if it manages to get some stability and reduce class sizes.
After all, nobody enrolls at a school like Pappas until they're homeless, and based on the test scores no one should want to stay on once they've reached a more stable place. But transferring in, and transferring out, to any school certainly adds to the academic upheaval.
The feds seem to be aware of the results, if not the root causes. Rutkin says he's personally aware of the comparative test scores that show homeless students doing worse at Pappas. And it's an issue for him.
"I've shared my concern with those who follow the academic progress of these students," Rutkin says. "I'm paying attention to this. I'm concerned any time someone tells me a program isn't as good as other programs."
As one of the few holdouts to the federal push to integrate schools, Pappas would surely face plenty of scrutiny. But it's likely to be even worse if the fight comes while Dowling is still wounded politically.
Yes, she's tough, and she's surprised her critics repeatedly. But she's always counted on politicians siding with her against education experts. When it comes to the county supervisors, at least, they appear to be genuinely concerned about Pappas' test scores.
Even if the political rift is healed, they're unlikely to jump to Dowling's defense this time around.
It's also possible that Pappas' failures may be even more glaring compared to the success that their mainstreamed counterparts seem to be achieving.
Rutkin says the data is still being gathered, but there seems to be clear indication that the kids absorbed into mainstream school districts are making strides.
"We've only recently started assessing this on a national basis," he says. "But it looks like we're going to have a good story of how homeless kids are doing overall. And what we want to see is progress and improvement."