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The biggest losers, Reza insists, will be county, city, and state tax coffers. An unscrupulous or desperate employer will show records for, say, five employees but will actually have 15 — meaning 10 people won't have any taxes withheld. Corporations will avoid setting up shop in Arizona to avoid the hassle and expense of setting up a business, only to lose it under HB2779's "death penalty." Some here, if they can afford to, will move and take the best workers with them.
You don't have to be Alan Greenspan to realize the impact of such economic bleeding on the budgets of local governments, which are already dealing with shortfalls due to a sluggish housing market.
Mostly from fear, Reza says employers are laying off Hispanic workers, but he believes they will eventually be rehired out of necessity, and likely under the table. The workers who utilize Macehualli are already part of the cash economy. Reza asserts they do not fall under the purview of the new legislation.
"Federal law says you don't have to ask for papers when you ask somebody to cut your lawn," says Reza. "If you hire someone for 72 hours, then you have to fulfill IRS requirements. If you have an independent contractor and pay him more than $600, you have to report that to the IRS."
Jornaleros, you see, might work from a few hours to a day or two at a time, getting paid anywhere from $8 to $12 an hour. Still, many of the ones I spoke to at Macehualli say they will move out of state and know people who've already done so.
One big, jovial guy, whom I'll call Vinnie to protect his identity, tells me he will move to New Mexico next year because "it's going to get harder to get work for all the people." Vinnie came to America on a six-month tourist visa and has been here two years. He says he'll do "any kind of work, man." The facts that his skin is pale, he has reddish hair, and he speaks fair English don't hurt him in this regard.
"Tell him who you worked next to at the gun show," laughs Reza.
"The Minutemen!" Vinnie says, describing how he was helping man a booth next to the vigilante group's. "They thought I was an American guy because of my color."
Sounds like they tried to recruit him. Vinnie says they even gave him a Minuteman hat. Too bad they didn't inquire as to Vinnie's thoughts on Sheriff Joe and his deputies.
"Can I use bad words?" he asks.
A sweet lady with large brown eyes, Dolores relates in broken English that she has been living illegally in the United States for six years, and that she does mostly housecleaning and babysitting. She has three children of her own. The oldest is a star lineman on a local high-school football team. Next year, he'll be a senior.
Is she afraid for her children, for her son especially? Her eyes widen and she tells me yes. She doesn't have to say why. Soon her son will be driving. And if he's pulled over for a minor infraction and found to possess a fake ID, the resulting Class 4 felony could have him in Sheriff Joe's jails. There, he would be under pressure from ICE agents to sign voluntary paperwork for what essentially is deportation back to Mexico, away from his family and his home.
Already such cases are commonplace. I'm reminded of that kids' flick Chitty-Chitty Bang-Bang, where all the children of the kingdom of Vulgaria are imprisoned or hidden away in sewers, to keep them from the clutches of a black-clad Child-Catcher. There's more than a touch of evil about our own Vulgarian state, where teenagers are hauled in for removal by Sheriff Joe.
Dolores' husband is a welder. The contracting firm for which he works moved to Utah in September, in part because of the advancing January 1 deadline. He spends three weeks there, and comes home for one week with his family. Will she move her family to Utah to be with him?
"Maybe, or maybe to some other state," she says, meekly. "Arizona is no good for us."
I converse with a guy I'll call Joe, who says he intends to stay and insists he's afraid of nothing. Many of his friends, however, are returning to Mexico.
While I'm chatting with him, an Anglo in a sleek, new-ish truck pulls up and both Joe and Dolores grab their tools and get ready to hop in.
"They're good workers," he admits. "I've gotten to know [Joe] and he's just trying to make a living. On the other hand, I know he's not paying taxes. So I'm kinda on both sides, right there. I don't agree with these big businesses hiring these people, making millions off them. But for me, when I need somebody to help me with help around my house, it's great."
He says there should be some way for Joe and Dolores to stay in the country legally if they can pass a criminal background check. That makes him a relative moderate in Arizona.