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The extremists are wrong.
Statistics obtained by New Times clearly show that illegal immigrants make up a small minority of those arrested in Mesa.
The figures show that Gascón could be wrong, too — but just barely.
Gascón's essay hinged on the fact that about a quarter of Mesa is Hispanic, and about a quarter of the people Mesa police arrested last year were Hispanic. Therefore, illegal immigrants, who make up only a part of the Hispanic community, cannot be committing crimes at a rate higher than Hispanics, in general.
A better way to figure out what is going on is to check the percentage of suspected illegal immigrants actually being arrested by Mesa officers. Since about the first of the year, the department has been asking crime suspects about their immigration status. In response to a New Times public-records request, Mesa police counted all the times arrestees confessed to being in the country illegally over a three-month period.
From February to April of this year, 201 suspects out of 2,555 admitted to being here illegally. That works out to just under 8 percent, and the estimated population of illegal immigrants in Arizona is 8 percent.
So far, Gascón's theory is holding up.
But, on a month-by-month basis, the picture looks different.
Breaking the numbers out shows the percentage of admitted illegal immigrants who were arrested rose from 6 percent in February to 10.7 percent in April. By extension, if Gascón is correct, these figures roughly match Mesa's population of undocumented residents in those months.
But it seems unlikely that the population of undocumented residents in Mesa nearly doubled in three months. It is also a stretch to think that, in any month this year, illegal immigrants made up nearly half of the 25 percent of Hispanics in Mesa.
Using some of the same evidence as Gascón did in his essay, it would make sense that illegals commit crime slightly out of proportion to their numbers. In his article, he states that "undocumented immigrants are disproportionately poor, young, and male: statistically, the group most prone to be involved in crime."
In fact, the actual number of undocumented people arrested in Mesa is likely even higher than the "self-reported" number, acknowledges Assistant Chief Meza. After all, suspects often lie about their immigration status.
Before the city changed its policy this month, many illegal immigrants probably knew that if they just kept their mouth shut, they might be cited and released for a misdemeanor rather than be turned over to ICE.
Tapia, the Mesa police spokeswoman, says the department does not update its records after suspects are booked into Maricopa County jails, which verify all inmates' immigration status in coordination with ICE. In other words, Mesa does not double-check to see how often arrestees are lying about their status.
Phoenix does check, however. In an April column in the Republic, Phoenix Police Chief Jack Harris discusses, among other things, how many suspects Phoenix police booked into jail turn out to be illegal immigrants. His numbers show that more than 13 percent of Phoenix arrestees are undocumented.
Daily inmate figures from the MCSO routinely show upward of 20 percent of the jail population is undocumented. But many of those inmates are awaiting trial (and have not yet been convicted of a crime), and illegal immigrants do not make bail as often as citizens, which makes their numbers increase over time.
At the Arizona Department of Corrections, more than 14 percent of inmates were foreign nationals as of June 1. Nolberto Machiche, the DOC's media spokesman, emphasizes that a notable portion of these inmates were in the country legally when arrested, though he says he does not know how many. His records do show that ICE currently plans to deport 2,600 inmates, or about 6.7 percent of the total.
If numbers provided by the Mesa PD and the DOC prove anything, it is that the overwhelming majority of crimes are committed by U.S. citizens.
Statistics aside, it would be naive to say illegal immigrants, especially those in the smuggling trade, do not cause special problems for police.
The question is, what to do about it.
Gascón's approach is to keep everything in perspective, based on the most current data.
"If you put anything more than 10 percent of your resources on the problem, you're not able to focus on other problems," he says.
Mesa Mayor Smith agrees that police should take a measured approach to illegal immigrants, not a wasteful one based on the emotional outcry of certain community members.
And certainly not one that views the illegal immigrant as Public Enemy Number One.
"We need to enforce the law, but in America we have rights," Smith says. "We don't want to sacrifice our rights to achieve a short-term solution."
Gascón says he has no problem with Mesa's new immigration policy for police. He believes it will give officers another tool to catch the worst criminals, though he will be monitoring the situation to avoid any racial profiling by his officers. All officers will be trained in the new policy over the next four months, before it will go into effect.