He expects the Bell Road location to turn into an actual dispensary eventually but says he won't own it. He says he represents the owner, who doesn't want to talk to the media yet.
In a backroom filled with folding tables and instructional posters, he speaks to New Times and about 10 other people who wandered in to chat about the new industry, some of whom claim they intend to open dispensaries.
The mock retail store set up by Medical Marijuana Dispensaries of Arizona near Bell Road near Interstate 17 was attracting public attention even before the election.
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One of the posters shows "The Math." Which goes something like this:
If there are 100,000 cardholders in the first year for the maximum 124 dispensaries, each dispensary will have an average of about 800 customers. If each customer buys the maximum 2.5 ounces of pot every two weeks, at $400 an ounce, that comes to about $1.6 million in gross sales per month.
That's about $2.4 billion a year in combined gross sales for all of the state's dispensaries.
This optimistic figure requires that each patient buy $2,000 a month worth of weed. Obviously, most people will buy less — unless they're violating the rules and sharing their maximum amount.
Either way, the Arizona dispensary business seems destined to be very lucrative — if you can get in on it.
A dispensary license will cost a maximum $5,000 for the first year, and $1,000 for each year afterward. For such a small investment, it sounds tempting, right? How tough could selling weed be? And growing marijuana is pretty easy — it's a weed.
Another poster shows all the steps necessary for the business. For starters, you'll spend a lot more than $5,000 if you want to own a dispensary. There'll be expenses for a retail storefront, security, lawyers, computers, Web support. You won't find capital for the venture at the bank, either, Sobol says, because the federally regulated institutions won't lend money to dispensary operations.
Wells Fargo, for instance, tells New Times it won't "bank" dispensaries because they're still illegal under federal law.
Sobol, who says he's been in on discussions with the state about the coming regulations, claims dispensaries will be required to buy expensive testing equipment to monitor the quality of the product.
Maybe this is just part of Sobol's sales pitch (since he'll charge clients a fee for dealing with myriad dispensary issues for them), but he contends it will cost a minimum of $150,000 to open a pot store.
Sobol knows that public opinion and policy about marijuana could change in coming years, putting all that capital in jeopardy. In this business, one serious slipup could mean worse than a lost investment. It could mean a trip to jail, because legal risks are inherent in the industry.
Dispensary employees are expected to obtain seeds within Arizona and grow them from scratch, says Joe Yuhas, a spokesman for Prop 203. He's the executive director of public affairs for the Riester public-relations company that led the measure to success for the Arizona Medical Marijuana Policy Project.
Prop 203 allows qualified patients to "donate" marijuana they grow to dispensaries, so it's possible that some dispensaries may open with stock on their shelves.
However, authorities will look closely at such dispensaries, and anyone caught stocking a store with illegal, non-Prop-203-approved weed (such as even legal marijuana from California and Colorado) could be arrested, Yuhas says.
The coming regulations will require state officials — and dispensary owners — to track marijuana from seed to sale, he says. If owners want to preserve their profitable businesses, he adds, they will stick to the rules.
Dispensary owners will have to negotiate with pot growers over such delicate issues as price and transportation. People with expertise in horticulture could pull in big bucks not only in the pot-cultivation side of the industry, but by contracting with dispensaries as pot-growing experts.
One catch: Prop 203 will protect the medical-marijuana industry from legal action by local — but not federal — law enforcement. The Obama administration has had a hands-off policy toward medical-marijuana clinics, but things could change in two years.
As the law stands now, dispensary owners could own and operate their own grow rooms, perhaps with one dispensary's large-scale greenhouse supplying multiple clinics. Sobol says this part of the business will be extra-tricky, because problems with grow rooms — such as employees taking product out the back door — would jeopardize a dispensary's license.
Two men in Sobol's conference room, who declined to give their names, tell New Times that they've already spent more than $150,000 preparing for their dispensary and that they've prepared a 200-page business plan they intend to submit to state authorities along with their application.
The DHS is sure to receive hundreds of dispensary applications on the first day it begins accepting them. Director Humble says he's not sure yet how he'll choose among qualified applicants.
Perhaps they'll be selected in a random lottery. Or maybe licenses will be sold to the highest bidder.
One thing's for sure: The DHS can't dawdle. Prop 203 will take effect no matter what opponents say (as Republicans have emphasized since the election: The people have spoken). Then, medical marijuana will stampede toward eager consumers.