Moreover, Arpaio has campaign money to burn — $3.8 million, according to his last finance report.

And there remains the very serious problem of Stauffer. Just by being on the ballot, he's sure to siphon votes that otherwise would have gone to Penzone. A recent poll has him pulling in about 8 percent, just behind "none of the above." But those eight points are enough to ensure a victory for Arpaio.

Worse than a three-way race is that some of those with the money to donate to a challenger like Penzone, or to an IE committee targeting Arpaio, believe Penzone's is a lost cause and may withhold their dollars.

Penzone, with his wife, Veronica
Courtesy of Paul Penzone
Penzone, with his wife, Veronica
Penzone (86) of the Cortez High School Colts football team
Courtesy of Paul Penzone
Penzone (86) of the Cortez High School Colts football team

There's evidence this already has happened. Democratic state Representative Ruben Gallego, co-chair of Citizens for Professional Law Enforcement, said his group got a late start and is only just now setting up fundraisers in and out of state.

"There have been people we have called for fundraising who are concerned that Stauffer is the Olivia Cortes of this election cycle," Gallego said. "It's made it more difficult for [Penzone] to win the race, and they are hesitant to give money."

In other words, Stauffer's candidacy is having what many believe to be its intended effect.

Why did Gallego's group start so late, just weeks before early voting was to begin?

Seems many were waiting for a similar anti-Arpaio IE to materialize. When it didn't, Gallego and Republican operative Carlos Sierra jumped into the fray.

Other independent groups, such as Citizens for a Better Arizona and Adios Arpaio, have devoted themselves to the ground game. That is, to registration, education, and a massive get-out-the-vote effort.

But it's a big county. During the last presidential election, about 1.3 million people voted in the sheriff's race, with Democrat Dan Saban pulling an impressive, if still losing, 42 percent.

Saban's campaign was hobbled by various factors, and Arpaio was much stronger in 2008 than he is today. Then, he was running as a team with now-disbarred ex-Republican County Attorney Andrew Thomas.

Penzone doesn't have the same troubles that weighed Saban down. And Arpaio has been wounded by rampant scandals and his showboating descent into birther madness.

Additionally, Latinos are mobilized like never before and are expected to vote in record numbers this year in Maricopa County, largely because Arpaio is their community's very real bogeyman.

Still, it may not be enough to deny Arpaio a sixth term.

Phoenix political consultant John Loredo is one of the savviest strategists on the Democratic side here in Arizona. A former state representative who despises Arpaio, Loredo would love to see Penzone prevail. But as things currently stand, he's pessimistic.

"You have to have money to go on the air, you have to have money to do mail," he said. "This is going to be a campaign where people have to be persuaded, and it takes money to persuade people."

Even assuming Penzone and his allies will have the resources to punch back against the Arpaio ads, Loredo believes that Stauffer is a deal-killer.

Many have come to the same conclusion, and yet, I think Arpaio still can be bested. Though certain things must happen to change the game.

In many respects, Penzone is a superb candidate. But every day he is not on TV and radio is a day lost. He needs to get as much earned media as possible, as often as possible.

For every dumb ad Arpaio runs, there should at least be a press release ripping it to shreds.

In fact, the Penzone camp needs to produce at least one or two press releases and e-mail blasts a day.

Whenever a negative story about Arpaio in the press gives Penzone an opening, he should hold a press conference.

Penzone and his staff constantly must look for ways to lambaste Arpaio's failed policies. Every press release from the MCSO or campaign statement from Arpaio's side should be met with a response.

Penzone has to go on the attack and stay on the attack. Seek out Arpaio's victims to make statements for the press. Law enforcement figures backing him should be seen prominently speaking out against the sheriff.

When Arpaio pulls a media-friendly raid on a workplace, Penzone has to go to the press and criticize it as a stunt in the strongest terms possible. I would go as far as to make appearances outside Arpaio's made-for-TV raids, denouncing them as distractions from real police work.

Be willing to take risks. Show up where you are least expected, and always be putting Arpaio on the defensive, forcing errors from him.

It's not like this would be remaking the wheel. These are standard tactics for a challenger, and they merely scratch the surface.

Penzone is a seasoned communicator, but he needs a series of talking points and catchphrases to use with the media. Some may see this as trite, but there's a reason politicians do it: It works.

Finally, there's a challenge for all of us. Despite the presence of Stauffer in the race, Penzone is a strong, earnest candidate who is 5.5 points behind Arpaio in the polls with a month to go. We do not have the luxury of apathy, nor should we concede victory to Arpaio because he's convinced a gazillion alter kocker wing-nuts out of state to send him $25 apiece.

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206 comments
milman69
milman69

He had no chance as he was from Phoenix PD who has an even worse record than MCSO.

rbtucker9495
rbtucker9495

Arpaio is done...he won't win re-election.

maxonepercent
maxonepercent

The problem is that the people who hate Arpaio so much are generally too stoned or in jail to actually vote in the election.  It is the same story year-in-and-year-out.  Can't you guys report on something else for once?

hatelibs
hatelibs

Perhaps it is time for Joe to retire...but lets not replace him with this useless ass hat.

JAckSplat89
JAckSplat89

get used to it, tumphrey-dump. Arpaio's gonna lose. and you'll have to get used to readin bout the new sheriff...

tomphrey1
tomphrey1

Good Lord, you've been running this propaganda piece for days.  You comsoclibprogs are on the side of the criminals.  Sheriff Joe is against criminals.  So am I.  So stuff it!

porcupine
porcupine

Bravo Mr. Lemons! Hadn't heard of Penzone before but my first impression of the guy is- wow. He doesn't sound like the typical candidate running for office and he doesn't sound like a cop either- both are good. Will check into this guy further and post this article on facebook. It's hardly a campaign with one candidate being a household name and the others just a name printed on the ballot. A race should at the very least, be interesting. Win or lose this his bid for Sheriff, I hope to hear more from him in the future and from any like-minded family members or friends he may have as well. Sensing a change in the wind here. 

suewallick74
suewallick74

This article is so old.  Take it out today along with several other that have been there for a long time.

LaLloronaDeeDee
LaLloronaDeeDee

@stephenlemons Penzone is a loser. I support @StauffersEgo for Sheriff so @RealSheriffJoe can win!

jhafford
jhafford

If you want to help turn up the heat, VOLUNTEER WITH THE MARICOPA COUNTY DEMOCRATS!  You can be part of a huge historic win, or you can wish you had.

karmavsdogma_42
karmavsdogma_42

is there any recent (as in the last two weeks) polling data on this race? and if not, why not? also, is there going to be any kind of public debate between candidates? other than signs on corners (and not many of those), I don't see anyone in this race doing much to try to actually win.

AZ Probate Realtor
AZ Probate Realtor

Hoping, hoping, hoping. If I don't vote for anyone else on the ballot I plan to vote for him.

Tommy_Collins
Tommy_Collins

As a retired law enforcement professional I would encourage all voters of Maricopa County to place their votes this year for PAUL PENZONE.

 

Paul is the person who will be the voice of reason and will be able direct the MCSO staff to create and carry out solutions to the problems existing within the agency, most of which have developed due to a lack of professional leadership from the current sheriff.

 

Paul knows the task will be daunting, yet he is eager to start working on it, knowing it will take every bit of the first four year term to transition MCSO into a professional law enforcement agency.

 

We, the voters and taxpayers, deserve such an agency.

 

Paul Penzone, the New Sheriff.

cliffisahomo
cliffisahomo

Re: Penzone - he won't, because he can't.  

R Pie Oh 4 Ever!  Bitches. 

cliff
cliff

I have read lots of comments on AOL, and Yahoo, on different subjects, but a lot of these comments that are posted here uses some of the filthiest language.  Can't you comment without using filthy language to get your point across?  The ones using this language should be ashamed of yourselves, grow up.

cooldude
cooldude

Yes of course, this makes complete strategic sense. Let's vote someone in who is younger than Arpaio and has the same policies therefore ensuring they live on for decades to come.  Lemons, I get it, you are totally desperate, the last thing to do while desperate is make bad decisions.  

tomphrey1
tomphrey1

Yes, Mr. Stephen Lemons, I am a member of the "divisive hateful" Tea Party.  Don't tell me the Democrats are not divisive.  And you write as though you are as hateful as I am.  The difference between you and me is that I am anti-criminal and you are pro-criminal, as are all of you comsoclibprogs.  So, my vote goes to Sheriff Joe!

novastarz47
novastarz47

Pinhead Penzone dont have a chance to soft on illegals ....................... Joe needs to finish his job and fry Obama

goGayGreenHornet
goGayGreenHornet

Yeah, because the snowbird dodos who vote for him are all residents of AZ and registered voters.   Based on your response, you probably also think Obama's really working hard............

to improve things like his golf handicap.

ElephantintheRoom
ElephantintheRoom

If any voter would just look at what you useless turds did to your own states before you decided you couldn't live in the shitholes you created and move here, they would vote Sheriff Joe for life. As nursemomski1 so eloquently stated, Go back to where you came from and take the illegals and homos with you.

pansies1136
pansies1136

If any voter would just utilize the Sheriff Joe archive of the Phoenix New Times - this would be a no brainer about electing someone else with a fresh perspective, integrity  and honesty

nursemomski1
nursemomski1

All you libs who trashed your states and moved here from MI, CA, IL go back to where you came from and take the illegals, that you want to support and think are so great, with you. The Great State of Arizona supports the American Constitution and it’s Amendments and Sheriff Joe enforces the law! 

robert_graham
robert_graham

Gay Penzone for sheriff?  I'll have to make note of that.

robert_graham
robert_graham

I found out today that the Penzone campaign is paying this rag to attack Arpaio.  The more false and baseless attack ads they write the more Penzone pays.  Penzone should stop wasting his money because his strategy won't work.  Since he feels he needs to turn up the heat he smells defeat. Honestly Penzone knows he doesn't stand a snowball chance in hell chance of winning especially after I launch my personal attack against Penzone which will be posted on almost every telephone pole and in public places in Phoenix and beyond.  And remember that "Adios Arpaio" event with the banner on the 1-10 overpass recently?  Wait until you see what I am planning for next week. I'll keep you guessing.

charcar08
charcar08

@tomphrey1 I hope you realize that Arpaio isn't as tough on crime as he claims to be. There are currently 40,000 outstanding felony warrants in Maricopa county as well as those 430+ uninvestigated sex crimes. Penzone deserves a chance he will spend money on prosecuting crime and not his own political gains.

Tommy_Collins
Tommy_Collins

 @tomphrey1

 Mr. Humphrey, you have the choice to not open the New Times site so you don't have to see this "propaganda piece". But you choose not to. Because I personally see the need for a new sheriff and I post my opinion here you say that I am on the side of criminals. Yet I am a decorated military veteran and a retired police officer. You seem to be suffering mental myopia.

Flyer9753
Flyer9753 topcommenter

 @truthseekeraz

 

Arpaio, debate someone? ROFL!!!!

 

Pass whatever it is your smokin there truth :)

 

Tommy_Collins
Tommy_Collins

 @karmavsdogma_42The old man will NOT debate. He doesn't get involved in two way conversations. He only talks TO people.

 

Paul Penzone meets daily with groups throughout the county, including 'debates' where the three candidates are all invited, but only two might show up.

 

bob_lablaw96
bob_lablaw96

 @Tommy_Collins As a retired law enforcement professional, and registered Republican, I second your motion!  There is no need to allow the Shurff to continue costing the taxpayers millions of dollars because he is an egotist, not a law enforcement manager.

 

 

bobunf
bobunf

 @tomphrey1 From 2002 to 2011 the number of violent crimes in areas served by the Maricopa County Sher-iff’s Office increased by an incredible 41%, from 628 to 884 violent crimes.  That’s 256 MORE murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults than 9 years ago.  

 

For the parts of Maricopa not served by the Sheriff, there was a 19% drop in violent crime for the same period.  That’s 3,428 FEWER murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults than 9 years ago.  

 

If the whole County had been run the way Sheriff Arpaio runs his part, there would have been nearly 8,000 more dead, raped, robed or assaulted Maricopans.   What words are there for that dismal performance on the part of Sheriff Arpaio?  

 

Utter dangerous incompetence.

bob_lablaw96
bob_lablaw96

 @novastarz47 If there really is a God, both Arpaio and Obama will both be gone in November...end of problem!

Tommy_Collins
Tommy_Collins

 @novastarz47Seriously? A local county sheriff in Arizona (one of fifteen) is going to 'fry' Obama? Explain, please, how that might happen.

narizona
narizona

ElephantintheRoom The only thing I see here that's useless is your ranting and raving about how you are so fucking good and everyone else that disagrees with you is shit !Hey fuck head You are the one that needs to leave (if you even live here) and go somewhere else and find your WHITE utopea . Arizona is my home and has been for over 63 years .....I can tell you Jo the JOKE sucks buttermilk and so does anyone that is sheepishly blind  and follows him  !

GreenHornet
GreenHornet

 @ElephantintheRoom go back to where you came from? like Arpaio? he's not from here. nor are the snowbird dodos who vote for him

narizona
narizona

  nursemomski1Sounds like YOU need to go back to Russia or Poland ..... or..............wherever you're from and take all your hillbilly friends with you You are the one polluting this state with your hate and bigotry! Try Germany ..I hear it's great this time of year!

mikefrombisbee
mikefrombisbee

 @nursemomski1 As if you'd lived here for any time, shit-talker. I've been here for more than 50 years. How about you??? Go back to Mississippi or Alabama and burn a cross or two. Arpaio is an egotist. He doesn't even believe in the bullshit you hold so dear. he just uses you cockroaches for his own purposes. He is only as much of a shit-talker as you.

bob_lablaw96
bob_lablaw96

 @JoeArpaioFan If this is true, you should stop reading this rag immediately!  There must be some homos you could service that believe in your devotion to the Flaccid Fool.

mikefrombisbee
mikefrombisbee

 @JoeArpaioFan When are you coming down to Cochise County, shit-talker? I'm waiting to take you to Gold Gulch...

MaximilianKohler
MaximilianKohler

 @nursemomski1  If you're voting for neo-republicans then yes you have. A bunch of right wing extremists trying to knock back all the progress we've made in the last 100 years.

karmavsdogma_42
karmavsdogma_42

 @Tommy_Collins  @karmavsdogma_42 Any polling data? I've got a local news filter set up on Google news, but I don't see any mention of Penzone (unless it's from the New Times) or Stauffer (unless it's from DeeDee and the Tucson Citizen) or Joe (ever). I think the majority of people who live in Maricopa county year-round are pretty fed up with Joe's shenanigans, but I don't see much happening from the other candidates to encourage voters to vote FOR them. They seem to be relying on the "anyone but Joe" vote, and that may not be enough, especially when Penzone and Stauffer (or, at least, their supporters) seem to spend more time fighting against each other than Joe.

264-1444
264-1444

 @MizzPeabodytoYou  @tomphrey1 the criminals in el mirage are "responsible" for what happened in el mirage. criminals are responsible for all crimes. are you retarded?

MaskedMagician1967
MaskedMagician1967

 @GreenHornet  GH, the MCSO shurf is from Springfield, MA. According to my confidential sources, he is not well-liked or well received.

MaskedMagician1967
MaskedMagician1967

 @mikefrombisbee  Mike, you should take Rachel Alexander's unemployed fiance (aka JAF) to Tombstone...

 

Surely you, as a Cochise County resident, remember the O.K. Corral... I don't remember who was involved in that shootout....

 
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