There's certainly not much reason to say next year won't be just as frenzied as earlier this year — when prices were shooting up 2 percent a month. While there's a traditional window in the Valley in October and November when temperatures drop and people start looking at houses, many will wait until well after the holidays.

High house-buying season doesn't really begin until February, when spring is in the air here. Which means the best indication of where the local market is truly headed may be how much consumers spend over the holidays — a key indicator of confidence in the national economy. Especially after the disruption in Washington, which had a side effect of slowing mortgage-loan approvals.

"Anything that's uncertain makes a lot of people hesitate," Orr says. "People tend to buy homes when they're feeling pretty comfortable."

If the current lull in demand surprises some experts and results in a slower rate of ascent for housing prices, it will be a relief for others.

Count Brett Barry as someone who's had enough boom-bust cycles. He's been doing realty in Phoenix for 17 years so he remembers normalcy. Indeed, he longs for those days.

"I'm waiting for real estate to become boring again," Barry says. "When nobody's reporting on it. When it's not the subject of cocktail conversation. I really don't want to talk about it anymore, and I'm a broker. But, in Phoenix, we love our real estate."

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21 comments
dondressel
dondressel

Does anybody know how prices are in ft. mojave? I would appreciate it if someone could let me know at dondressel@yahoo.com Thank you Don Dressel

ConcernedCitizenAZ
ConcernedCitizenAZ topcommenter

Is this the housing you mean? Private corporation prison "beds" are increasing by the thousands. $50,000,000 mortgage foreclosure money swiped for this and / or a new Super Max Prison, Arizona does not need.

Time for a reality check by the PR and marketing people promoting Arizona to naive prospects.

Cuzitsthere
Cuzitsthere

The market has actually already turned. Mr Orr was just too kind to point that out. Inventory is going up very hard and demand has dropped far below the usual seasonality (its always slowest in Q4). Sellers getting greedy hasn't helped. If I am a buyer I would be waiting a bit. I expect prices to start adjusting downwards due to lack of demand or at best going sideways. There is very little demand right now. The change has been very similar to late 2008.

TheRegular
TheRegular

I definitely take issue with Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business', Michael Orr. The neighborhood I bought into in 2011 has a few houses available in the $125k range and it is far from a slum. Check out the South Mountain area of Phoenix, east of 24th Street. Their are some nice neighborhoods with conscientious, hardworking homeowners and considerate renters, that would put some Scottsdale neighborhoods to shame.

afdhm
afdhm

These bastards are back. Can't they leave the wise, older property owners alone?

royalphoenix
royalphoenix

My property taxes dropped 50% from 2006-2013. My 5/1 arm signed in Mar. of 04 @ 4.4% has been below 2.9% for the last 2 years. No complaints from me. peace

John Blevins
John Blevins

OVER RATED, And IF you watch that dumb-ass show that is more hype and crap with the Doug guy in it,Property Wars, STAY AWAY AND STEER CLEAR OF THEM, DO NO BUSINESS WITH THEM As far as I am concerned THEY RIPPED ME AND MY FAMILY OFF.

Camille Stodgell
Camille Stodgell

Hell yeah, That's because 90 Percent of the homes being sold in the past 5 years were FORECLOSURES.....Banks would not work with homeowners so they LOST their homes......Just ask WELLS FARGO. They top # 1 for that...

Brennan Johnson
Brennan Johnson

Sheeple!!! Well now that the media outlets in this town are posting positive news about the market the market has taken off. The market didn't need to tank as far as it did, but with all the negative news back in 08-09 telling the sheeple to run the market had no chance.

Nicholas Gonzalez
Nicholas Gonzalez

Housing should be affordable. And should never get back to how high homes were before the bubble burst.

Eliott Kroll
Eliott Kroll

All tied to QE. If you remember rates reacting to the word, 'taper' a few months ago, that should give you some idea of what's to come.

bluebassin
bluebassin

Up 35% in one year? Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right before the last big crash. 

How is this NOT a bubble again?

ConcernedCitizenAZ
ConcernedCitizenAZ topcommenter

@Camille Stodgell  While investors swiped those homes at rock bottom prices, to begin the cycle all over again.  Withholding mortgage foreclosure money to the homeowners it was intended for, has been shameful Arizona.

BrainyTreesWhipDevil
BrainyTreesWhipDevil

It is affordable, to anyone that isn't making minimum wage.  People making below average incomes should be living in rentals.

marcy
marcy

@Nicholas Gonzalez 

Planes should be affordable and the price of gas should never go back to how high it was.

If you can't afford to buy a house or a helicopter, rent.

royalphoenix
royalphoenix

@bluebassin The bubble was caused by over aggressive lenders and buyers who bought the line "real estate never goes down." I don't think the mortgage companies do liar loans anymore. peace

marcy
marcy

@bluebassin 

Why is it not a bubble?  Because prices are now back to more normal levels from deeply depressed levels and aren't anywhere near the bubbly peaks of 2005/6 and remain below the cost of new construction in most areas.

Sorry to hear you, like most people, missed one of the greatest home buying opportunities of a lifetime.


BrainyTreesWhipDevil
BrainyTreesWhipDevil

@ConcernedCitizenAZ

Tough luck for those that paid too much and wouldn't make their monthly payments.  Don't pay your loan, lose your home.


Nobody swiped anything, you and your fellow deadbeats just stopped paying and got the boot as a result.

bluebassin
bluebassin

@marcy 
 

Used house salesman like you said this same thing before the last market crash also. How many California investors do you work for?

marcy
marcy

@bluebassin @marcy 

I was singing the same tune in 2009+ when I was telling people not to listen to people like you who were saying houses were a terrible investment and prices would never go up again.

I work for myself honey and I was buying while you were hiding under the bed.   The typical rent I get is about double what the mortgage payment is on the houses I bought.  So I have been getting massively positive cash flow for 4+ years and appreciation.



 
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