New York Times Statistician Gives Rodney Glassman a 1.5 Percent Chance at Beating John McCain in Senate Race
John McCain may not be the most popular guy in Arizona, but his Democratic opponent in this year's Senate race, Rodney Glassman, seems far less popular.
Glassman's campaign has gotten off to a sluggish start -- staffers quitting, rumors that Glassman treats campaign workers like crap -- and now a New York Times analyst, who specializes in collaborating and analyzing political polling data, has set the odds for a Glassman victory.
Things aint lookin' pretty for Rodney.
Nate Silver, a respected statistician who was once named one of Time magazine's 100 Most Influential People, has used a formula based on collaborating polling data from several different pollsters, and he's giving Glassman a 1.5 percent chance at beating John McCain in the general election.
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Of course, Silver's calculations don't factor in things like a dead woman or a live boy, but barring any unforeseen incident, or dramatic turn in public support, McCain seems like a shoo-in for another six years.
Silver's formula is fairly complex. Check it out here.
Silver's assessment aside, there's some good news for Glassman -- assuming he holds Scott Rasmussen's polling data in a slightly higher regard than we do.
According to a Rasmussen poll released today, Glassman has gained some ground on McCain since a previous poll taken last month.
According to the latest poll, Glassman has picked up six percentage points. McCain now leads the race, according to Rasmussen, with 51 percent of the vote to Glassman's 37 percent.
Check out Rasmussen's latest report here.
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