Fixing Arizona’s housing crisis could create 126K jobs, study says

Arizona used to be an affordable housing paradise. But today, few residents would describe it that way.

Over the last 10 years, rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Arizona has increased by nearly 66%, now costing renters an average $1,671 a month. The average home price has skyrocketed even more, more than doubling to $434,797. Mortgage rates have also nearly doubled. At the same time, incomes in Arizona have failed to keep pace, with the median Arizona income increasing only 24% in the last decade.

Nearly every Arizonan has felt the crunch.

According to voter survey findings from the nonpartisan think tank Center for the Future of Arizona, nearly 85% of Arizona voters find rental and housing prices to be “too high.” A separate, earlier study found more than one in four residents have thought of leaving the state over housing costs. CFA’s study noted that more than 30% of Arizona residents — roughly 823,100 households — pay more than the recommended 30% of their income on housing costs, leaving them financially burdened. Relatedly, Maricopa County landlords filed a record-breaking 87,000 evictions last year.

But if those facing high housing costs had access to affordable housing — specifically, if the share of their incomes spent on housing could be lowered to 30% or less — the knock-on effect would be the creation of more than 126,400 jobs, the CFA study found.

“Increasing affordable housing can reduce the financial strain on families and enable them to allocate more resources toward essentials like education, health care and transportation,” the study states. “This reallocation not only improves the quality of life but also contributes to a healthier and more productive workforce.” 

CFA’s study used Arizona-specific socioeconomic and demographic data, as well as publicly available reports and national data sets, to imagine the impact on Arizona’s economy if no one was cost-burdened by housing. According to a National Equity Atlas report referenced in the study, such housing relief could result in an additional $8,400 per year on average for each currently cost-burdened household. With that chunk of change no longer being spent on housing costs, that money could trickle down into the larger state economy.

The study calculated that the additional $8,400 per year for affected families could result in an additional $6.9 billion a year “direct consumer spending and economic activity” in Arizona, translating to a total of $13.6 billion in total economic output for the state as a whole. This influx of billions of dollars into Arizona’s economy would support approximately 126,400 additional jobs, the study said.

“If families have more disposable income, they’re able to frequent more places,” said Phoenix City Councilmember Anna Hernandez, a stalwart housing advocate, about the study’s findings. “They’re able to shop at more businesses or go out to eat or take an extra vacation. That all translates into additional jobs.”

Of course, “It’s good for the economy when people can afford a place to live” is not exactly a shocking conclusion. The more difficult thing to discern is how to make that happen.

What can be done?

While CFA’s study makes the incentives for addressing housing costs clear — namely, redounding benefits to the state as a whole — it does not offer any proposed policy solutions. And while Arizona has taken some steps to address affordability, a lot of work remains.

The largest and most documented housing issue facing Arizona is that there just isn’t enough of it. The construction of homes hit massive roadblocks during the Great Recession and, more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Things have improved more recently — Maricopa County led the nation in building new housing units last year — but the state still has a shortage and “has never caught up with the amount of homes in all different forms that we have needed,” Hernandez said.

Hernandez says there has not been enough diversity in the types of homes being built. There’s been lots of construction of apartments or “big homes that people can’t afford,” Hernandez said, but less building of affordable options for families, such as townhomes or starter homes. This has resulted in a gap in the “options that families have,” she said, with many available properties being either too small or too expensive. 

State lawmakers have taken some steps to address that problem. Last year, the Arizona Legislature passed what has become known as the casitas bill, which allows homeowners to build “accessory dwelling units,” such as backyard casitas or mother-in-law suites, on lots zoned for single-family use. It also preempts local ordinances that would restrict that kind of construction, though critics say the new law does little to ensure those casitas are used as permanent housing and not Airbnbs. Another bill, also signed into law in 2024, requires cities and towns to allow duplexes, fourplexes and townhomes to be built in neighborhoods zoned for single-family homes. It’s also caught criticism from the residents of historic neighborhoods.

Other bills have failed. The 2024 Starter Homes Act, which aimed to require municipalities to adopt zoning regulations that would encourage the building of starter homes, was vetoed by Gov. Katie Hobbs for having “unclear outcomes.” A similar bill failed to reach her desk this year.

At the federal level, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has been advocating for the ROAD to Housing Act, which would institute a number of reforms to make homebuilding easier, such as changing regulations around manufactured housing and authorizing the Department of Housing and Urban Development to provide more housing assistance to local governments. Kelly told Phoenix New Times that he “feels good about it,” though it has a ways to go before becoming law.

Kelly feels less good about other things affecting housing in Arizona, though. President Donald Trump’s 45% tariffs on Canadian lumber — which were increased by 10 points after Canada ran an ad during the World Series quoting a Ronald Reagan anti-tariff speech — could significantly increase home prices, Kelly said. (Thirty percent of lumber for American home construction comes from Canada.) Additionally, Kelly said the Trump administration’s mass deportation agenda has resulted in many construction workers not showing up to work for fear of Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids.

“In a time when we all recognize that housing is too expensive, it’s still going up more because of this president’s policies,” Kelly said. “I’ve talked to homebuilders; they can’t get anybody to show up to work.” 

At any rate, even if all Arizonans had access to affordable housing and the state created an additional 126,400 jobs as the CFA study suggests, Kelly believes it wouldn’t have much of an impact.

“We don’t have enough people to take their jobs,” he said. After all, according to a June report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 149,000 job openings in Arizona, roughly matching the number of unemployed job-seekers in the state. Filling additional jobs would require more people to move to Arizona… which would require more housing.