If you ask Scott Rasmussen, he'll insist (and insist) that until an incumbent candidate has 50 percent of the vote, that candidate is vulnerable. This theory has become a staple of Senate hopeful J.D. Hayworth's morale campaign in his quest to unseat Senator John McCain in the GOP primary.
Each time the Hayworth campaign releases new poll data, it's quick to point out Rasmussen's theory, which, if true, now suggests that McCain is no longer "vulnerable" and that Hayworth should probably try to get back into the infomercial biz.
According to the latest poll from Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling firm, McCain now holds a 23-point lead over Hayworth and has surpassed Rasmussen's hump of 50 percent.
McCain, the poll claims, now has 52 percent of the vote, to Hayworth's 29 percent, which contradicts a Rasmussen poll released earlier this week.
That poll put Hayworth at 36 percent to McCain's 47 percent -- lumping "The Maverick" into Rasmussen's list of vulnerable candidates.
Whenever a new poll is released, McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers almost always says, "We don't live in die with every poll." But he may want to reconsider given the latest news.
Rogers is right, though -- it seems there's a new poll contradicting the last released one every few days. Rasmussen can personally call every person in Arizona if he wants to, but at the end of the day, we're not gonna know how vulnerable "The Maverick" is or isn't until primary day.