While it’s going to be warm on Friday for Independence Day, it won’t be as bad as it could be. National Weather Service meteorologist Alex Young said that increased moisture in Phoenix is entering the Valley ahead of the holiday, which will drive temperatures just below the average high for early July.
Very hot temperatures will persist through Tuesday with highs today topping 115°F in some areas. Phoenix may set a daily record high today with a forecast high of 116°. Fortunately, cooler weather is expected by mid-week as thunderstorm activity moves into the region. #azwx #cawx pic.twitter.com/TVpucUPDba
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) June 30, 2025
The high is expected to be 105 degrees. Since 1991, the average July 4 temperature is 107 degrees, according to NWS. The record high for July 4 hit Phoenix in 1989, when the temperature reached 118 degrees.
“Temperature-wise, we’re going to be around normal,” Young said.
Pre-holiday rain could help things cool down. The chances of thunderstorms across the Phoenix metro are around 20-30% on Wednesday night and 10-15% on Thursday, per the NWS. By Friday and the festivities of Independence Day, chances of rain drop to about zero due to a low-pressure system moving in from the west that will dry Phoenix out, Young said.
A pattern change next week will result in increasing moisture across the region. Storm chances the first half of the week will be confined to the higher terrain. For the latter half of the week there's a slight chance for storms across the lower deserts of south-central AZ. #azwx pic.twitter.com/mOrdLysEpD
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) June 28, 2025
That means the day will be dry and warm — but not insanely hot.
“We’re just having better monsoonal moisture being pushed into the region — that’s kind of why we have some hazy skies this morning with reduced visibilities,” Young said. “These moisture levels are going to continue to increase, which should be more favorable for some thunderstorms to develop.”
After July 4, the Valley will heat up a bit. Highs for Saturday and Sunday are 107 and 109 degrees, respectively.
Young recommended taking normal precautions for Independence Day festivities, like staying hydrated, limiting time outside during the hottest parts of the day and wearing light-colored clothing.
And, of course, try not to set yourself aflame or blow off a finger while lighting those fireworks.
