According to the latest poll of Arizonans, President Obama's ahead of Mitt Romney by two percentage points, which qualifies as being "dead even."
This poll comes from the Behavior Research Center, which is notably the only polling outfit that's shown an Obama lead in Arizona out of the eight companies that have polled here.
According to the New York Times' Nate Silver, this polling company "has had good results in the past," but he notes that "even a good polling firm can and will produce an outlying result or two with a sample size (500 people) like that."
That said, Obama's 42-40 lead over Romney includes 13 percent in the "not sure" category, and includes both Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who polled at 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
In addition to Obama's apparent lead, the Behavior Research Center poll shows Richard Carmona with a four-point lead over Congressman Jeff Flake in the U.S. Senate race. Since the margin of error is stated to be 4.4 percent, that's not really a lead, either.
"Thus it must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battleground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on which political party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang on to the Latino vote," the pollsters' release says.
Arizona Latinos favor Obama over Romney by 77 to 10 percent, according to these results.
The results also note that Obama's up 46-39 in Maricopa County, and Carmona's up 46-38 in the county.
Keep Phoenix New Times Free... Since we started Phoenix New Times, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Phoenix, and we would like to keep it that way. Offering our readers free access to incisive coverage of local news, food and culture. Producing stories on everything from political scandals to the hottest new bands, with gutsy reporting, stylish writing, and staffers who've won everything from the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi feature-writing award to the Casey Medal for Meritorious Journalism. But with local journalism's existence under siege and advertising revenue setbacks having a larger impact, it is important now more than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" membership program, allowing us to keep covering Phoenix with no paywalls.