Prop 203 Spokesman: "We're Likely to Win" Based on Trend of Provisional Ballots

Andrew Myers, the campaign manager for Proposition 203, tells New Times tonight that he's very hopeful the medical marijuana initiative will come out on top when all the votes are in.

It seems like wishful thinking, but official figures show he might be right.

Myers points out that provisional ballots counted in other counties are skewing much more favorably toward the "yes" side than the general ballots. This effect can be seen in the "vote type summary" section of election results on the Secretary of State's Web site. The provisional ballots so far counted give 10,953 votes to the "yes" side and just 7,029 to the "no" side.

If that trend holds up when Maricopa County counts its 41,000 remaining provisional ballots, Prop 203 would go from losing by about 3,000 less than 1,500 votes (as of Thursday night) to winning by several thousand, Myers says.

"We're likely to win," he explains.

Myers thinks the provisionals are trending toward 203 is because younger people tend to move around more and the addresses on their identification cards don't match the address on file with the elections department. Younger people, surveys showed, support 203 in far higher numbers than average.

A final tally won't be available until Monday or Tuesday, officials say.

Here's the latest breakdown of what's left to count, via Matt Benson of the Secretary of State's office:

As of Thursday afternoon, there are an estimated 14,000 early ballots and 45,000 provisional ballots statewide that are yet to be processed and counted. All of the remaining early ballots are in Maricopa County. Of the provisional ballots yet to be processed, 41,000 are in Maricopa County. The remainder is split among Coconino, Yavapai, Yuma and Gila counties.

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Ray Stern has worked as a newspaper reporter in Arizona for more than two decades. He's won numerous awards for his reporting, including the Arizona Press Club's Don Bolles Award for Investigative Journalism.