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Both of Arizona’s senators seem more than happy to let presidential run speculation fly as they “consider” a campaign for the highest office in the land. Although one appears to have a better shot than the other.
A recent poll by Yale Youth Polling found that registered Democrats view Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly as the second-most electable potential presidential candidate, just behind California Gov. Gavin Newsom. When presented with a theoretical matchup between Kelly and another candidate, 70% of polled voters said Kelly was more “likely” to win the 2028 presidential election against a Republican.
Kelly’s seatmate, Sen. Ruben Gallego, also made the list, but a bit lower. Gallego ranked as the 14th-most electable Democratic presidential option, with 41% of polled voters choosing him in head-to-head matchups. Gallego trails Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Neither Kelly nor Gallego immediately responded to a request for comment from Phoenix New Times.
The two Arizona senators were among a slate of 20 possible candidates, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, billionaire Mark Cuban, former vice president and 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris and progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Yale Youth Polling, which is run by Yale undergraduates, asked nearly 3,500 Democratic primary voters which candidates “would be more likely to win the 2028 presidential election against a Republican.” The majority of respondents were 35 or younger.
Both Kelly and Gallego have floated the idea of a presidential run in the 2028 election, which is two and a half years away. In February, Kelly told the BBC that he would “seriously consider” a bid for the presidency. When Gallego was asked about a presidential run last April, he left the door open, saying, “We have to look at it.”
Kelly has received White House buzz even before Trump retook the office. His name first appeared as a possible candidate when President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign in the summer of 2024. Harris ultimately shored up support as the consensus candidate in short order, though she reportedly seriously considered Kelly as her running mate before picking Walz.
Already familiar to some as a former astronaut, retired Navy pilot and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived a gunshot to the head in Tucson in 2011, Kelly’s profile has risen since Trump won the 2024 election. Trump has played a role in that.
Late last year, Kelly was one of several Democratic lawmakers with military or CIA experience who collaborated on a video urging U.S. servicemembers to refuse unlawful orders. That drew the ire of Trump, who accused Kelly and the other lawmakers of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH.” Trump’s Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, then tried to demote Kelly from his rank of captain, which was blocked by a federal judge.
Instead of silencing Kelly, the move by the Trump administration gave Kelly a bump in fundraising dollars and name recognition to support a presidential run. Based on Yale Youth Polling’s results, that appears to be working.
Gallego’s story is a bit different. Since defeating MAGA sweetheart Kari Lake in a high-profile Senate race in 2024, Gallego has been a figure to watch on Capitol Hill. He’s been riding the wave of handily winning an election in a key swing state, winning praise for capturing a portion of Trump voters and speaking effectively to the Latino population.
More recently, though, he’s caught flak for some of his endorsements. Gallego endorsed Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner, despite Platner having once had a Nazi-linked tattoo. More recently, an endorsement of California Rep. Eric Swalwell, a close colleague of Gallego’s who was running for governor in that state, has blown up in his face.
On Friday, sexual misconduct allegations against Swalwell brought by a former staffer were made public. Amid the backlash, Gallego has rescinded his endorsement of Swalwell — after previously defending him — and Swalwell dropped out of the race while denying the allegations as “false.” Still, questions swirl about how much others, including Gallego, knew about Swalwell’s inappropriate behavior. On Monday, Gallego called on Swalwell to resign from Congress.
“I want to be clear: I had no knowledge of the allegations of assault, harassment, and predatory behavior against Eric Swalwell,” Gallego said in an emailed statement. “I trusted someone who I believed was a friend, but it is now clear that he is not the person I thought I knew.”
How that might affect a Gallego presidential run remains to be seen. Presidential candidates typically kick off their campaigns a year and a half before Election Day, according to Smart Politics data, so Kelly and Gallego have nearly a year to decide if they’re in or out.
