Will the Swalwell scandal nuke Ruben Gallego’s presidential chances?

Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego wants to be president one day. But since the bombshell sexual assault allegations dropped about now-former California Rep. Eric Swalwell — a man Gallego has described as his best friend — those hopes appear to have taken a major hit.

On Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported that Swalwell, a Democrat who was running for California governor, allegedly engaged in inappropriate sexual behavior with several different women, including congressional staffers. Those sexual encounters included two instances in which a woman says Swalwell raped her when she was too intoxicated to give consent, as well as the married Swalwell sending two women unsolicited photos of his penis.

Since that initial reporting, more allegations of sexual misconduct and rape by Swalwell have surfaced. He suspended his gubernatorial campaign on Sunday — days after Gallego yanked his endorsement — and resigned from Congress mere minutes after Gallego called on him to quit. Swalwell’s attorney, Sara Azari, has said Swalwell denies “each and every allegation of sexual misconduct and assault” made against him, calling them “false, fabricated, and deeply offensive.”

The blowback has hit Gallego, who chaired Swalwell’s short-lived 2020 presidential campaign. Gallego has faced intense scrutiny over his relationship with Swalwell, which has generated questions about what he knew, when and why he never did anything about it.

After initially defending Swalwell last week, Gallego held a long, emotional press conference on Tuesday in which he said Swalwell “lied” to and “betrayed” him. He acknowledged having heard rumors that Swalwell was “flirty” with women, but said he allowed his longtime friendship with Swalwell, and his family, to “cloud his judgment,” which “was wrong.”

Gallego said he never saw the married father of three “engage in any of the predator behavior, harassment, sexual assault,” though Gallego said he did confront Swalwell when the sexual misconduct rumors began circulating weeks ago.

“He lied to me,” Gallego told reporters.

If Gallego still harbors presidential aspirations — he’s generated buzz on that score, though perhaps not as much as fellow Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly — the Swalwell connection may tank them.

“He’s fucked for 2028,” said one Republican political consultant, who spoke to Phoenix New Times on the condition of anonymity. “His chances of 2028 ended last Friday. He has to stop thinking about 2028 and just start thinking about 2030.”

Gallego will be up for reelection in 2030. His campaign did not respond to questions about whether he thinks the Swalwell scandal will affect his viability as a presidential candidate.

“It’s not even over. He still faces a lot of questions,” said the GOP political consultant. “We don’t know the extent of this yet, because there are still so many unresolved issues.” 

While many politicos are still questioning how much Gallego really knew, one Arizona-based Democratic consultant — who was also granted anonymity to speak freely — doubts there’s any dirty laundry left to be aired about Gallego. “I think what happened with Swalwell was that it was his first time really being at this important precipice,” the consultant said, “and I think people were like, ‘Man, I need to tell my story before this guy becomes governor.’” By contrast, he said, Gallego has already been under that spotlight.

During his Senate campaign against Kari Lake in 2024, Gallego’s past was raked over. The records from his divorce from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego were unsealed — and mostly boring — and Lake’s campaign tried unsuccessfully to tar him with the sins of his father, who has a criminal drug history and left Gallego’s family when he was young. Gallego also has been open about his struggles with PTSD after serving in the Iraq War and the impact that had on his marriage and personal relationships.

If someone had something truly damaging to reveal about Gallego, the Democratic consultant said, he figures it would have surfaced then.

“Ruben already had that moment where he’s about to become senator, and people didn’t come out,” the consultant said.

That doesn’t mean damaging info can’t come out about Gallego, or that there isn’t a secret yet to be revealed. (Though inaccurate claims about him using campaign funds for his wedding probably ain’t it.) But it also may be moot, as far as a presidential campaign is concerned. Another Republican-leaning consultant, Chuck Coughlin of the Phoenix firm HighGround, questions the entire premise of “Ruben Gallego, presidential frontrunner.”

Coughlin noted that while Gallego won a statewide election in a year when Donald Trump comfortably carried the state, he also did so by beating a notoriously weak candidate in Lake. That win, and the presidential chatter he’s received to this point, “had more to do with the quality of his opposition than anything else,” Coughlin said.

Coughlin — who is no MAGA cheerleader — thinks Gallego has a “bright future” and is “well-intentioned,” but is also “not ready” for the presidency and is “a long way from trying to represent the country.” As for whether the Swalwell connection will permanently damage Gallego, Coughlin says that unless more information comes out about Gallego, he tends to believe the senator’s claims of being blindsided.