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It’s a big jump since 2024, when Vice President Kamala Harris put the Arizona senator on her short list for running mate but went a different direction. When the dust settled on her defeat, pollsters asked Democrats who they wanted on the ticket in 2028.
Kelly barely registered.
“Kelly got 0.4%,” said Matthew Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. “People don’t necessarily know who he is, and he doesn’t come top of mind for folks.”
That changed in November, when Kelly and five other congressional Democrats who served in the military or CIA posted a video reminding active-duty personnel of their legal duty to disobey unlawful orders.
The video prompted Trump to accuse Kelly of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH.”
In the weeks that followed, Kelly’s fundraising exploded.
He has now raised more than any other incumbent senator facing reelection in 2028 – and more than all but one 2026 Senate candidate. On Monday, he told the BBC that he will “seriously consider” a run for president in 2028.
In Iowa and New Hampshire, which host the first nominating contests, Democratic leaders say he would be a serious contender thanks to his resume as a Navy combat pilot and astronaut and toughness against Trump.
“That backbone is exactly the sort of stuff that New Hampshire people like,” Raymond Buckley, chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, said by phone on Tuesday. Kelly’s service in the Senate “certainly establishes him as a very credible candidate for president,” he added.
As it happens, one of the other lawmakers in the video that drew Trump’s anger, Rep. Maggie Goodlander, is from New Hampshire. That means Granite State voters paid closer attention to Kelly’s fight with the Trump administration, Buckley said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tried to censure and demote Kelly, a retired Navy captain, with a cut in his retirement pay.
Kelly sued to block the move.
Last Friday, a federal judge blocked the demotion as the case plays out. The judge chastised Hegseth for trying to intimidate and silence a military veteran. The judge also noted that it’s probably unconstitutional for the executive branch to punish a member of Congress over speech protected by the First Amendment.
Days after Trump’s demand for his arrest on Nov. 20, Kelly’s daily fund-raising spiked to 20 times the average a week earlier.
He pulled in $1 million on Nov. 30 alone, and that was just counting itemized donations.
Of the $22.2 million he raised in 2025, more than $12.5 million came in the last three months of the year, according to his year-end campaign finance report.
In all, he has raised $33 million since his 2022 election – more than any other incumbent senator facing reelection in 2028, according to FEC data, and enough to rank second in this year’s Senate elections.
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Presidential prospects
Under federal law, he could use those funds to kickstart a presidential run.
“He can convert swing voters and raise a ton of money,” said Matt Grodsky, a Democratic strategist in Arizona. “That’s got to be attractive to not just the party establishment, but voters as well that are looking for an alternative.”
Kelly served in the Navy for 25 years, retiring in 2011. He flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm. As an astronaut, he travelled over 20 million miles in space.
Those experiences show Kelly’s “dedication and commitment to the country and to the public interest,” said Steven Smith, a political scientist and expert in elections and public opinion at Arizona State University.
Kelly’s political career, though, spans just six years. Although most presidents served in the military, few senators have made the jump with so little time in elected office.
As Arizona voters know well, his wife, Gabby Giffords, was a member of the U.S. House. In 2011, a gunman shot her in the head and nearly killed her as she met with constituents outside a Tucson supermarket. A federal judge and a young girl were killed.
Kelly and Giffords co-founded the group now known as Giffords, which advocates for gun safety. Kelly has an outsized voice on gun violence because of the attack, a good issue in the presidential primaries; Democrats overwhelmingly support gun control, according to Pew Research polling.
“She was well known before the shooting, but certainly her resilience and coming back, it’s just been remarkable,” Buckley said. “There’s significant affection for Gabby here in New Hampshire.”
Giffords resigned from Congress in 2012. Kelly ran for the Senate in 2020, defeating Republican Martha McSally to claim the seat formerly held by John McCain. Kelly was the first Democrat in decades to hold the seat. He won by 2.4 percentage points.
In 2022, Kelly sailed past Republican Blake Masters by a comfortable 4.9% margin – adding to the Democrats’ progress in purple Arizona.
That impressed Bret Nilles, chair of the Linn County Democratic Party in Iowa, which includes Cedar Rapids.
“Kelly’s experience can enable him to take the same messaging that was successful in Arizona … to other states that are going to be swing states – Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania and possibly even Georgia,” Nilles said.
His experience would “definitely be a plus,” he said.
Kelly’s political resume is longer than it was in 2024, when President Joe Biden bowed out and Harris, scrambling for a running mate, picked Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota over Kelly and a few others.
“That election didn’t go the way we would have liked for Democrats, but I think it helped put him on people’s radar for more of a national perspective,” said Grodsky.
Kelly’s “reserved personality” was a factor in Harris’ decision, Smith said, but he brings a lot to the table in 2028: fundraising, the military background and his strength in standing up to Trump.
“Some candidates may pop up and be flashier speakers,” he said, “but none of them will be as articulate. Kelly just commands your attention.”
This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
