Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will be headed to Congress, according to the Associated Press.
The vote count is the same as when we checked with the Maricopa County Recorder's office earlier this morning -- Sinema's up nearly 5,800 votes -- but that appears to be a solid-enough lead.
-Ron Barber Now Leads Martha McSally; Kyrsten Sinema Widens Gap Against Vernon Parker
-Ann Kirkpatrick Called Winner in CD-1; Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally Lead
-Arizona's Congressional Elections: Good, Bad, and Ugly
-Kyrsten Sinema, Vernon Parker and Why Top-Two Was and Is a Dumb Idea
-Can Kyrsten Sinema Win in Congressional District 9?
Sinema's lead over Parker grew by about 2,000 votes over the weekend, and there are thousands of ballots remaining to be counted.
We Believe Local Journalism is Critical to the Life of a City
Engaging with our readers is essential to Phoenix New Times's mission. Make a financial contribution or sign up for a newsletter, and help us keep telling Phoenix's stories with no paywalls.
Support Our Journalism
There were 140,000 early ballots and 122,000 provisional ballots still waiting to be processed and tabulated as of yesterday, and according to our assumptions, about 47,500 of those remaining votes might be from CD-9 voters.
If that's the case, then Parker would need to score about 53 percent of the remaining votes, while Sinema lands 41, and third-party candidates pick up the scraps for Parker to have a shot. That's not a very likely scenario.
If the call for Sinema remains true, then it would come down to the race between Democratic Congressman Ron Barber and Republican challenger Martha McSally in Tucson's CD-2 to see if Arizona sends more Republicans or Democrats to Washington as Representatives.