Beginning Wednesday evening and continuing into the weekend, the Phoenix area is expected to experience monsoon storm activity. The Valley could get heavy winds, thunderstorms and scattered rain, according to the National Weather Service.
Storms will fire up along the Rim and down into SE AZ before strong outflows push towards the Valley this evening. Storms may struggle to survive into Phoenix, but gusty outflows capable of producing blowing dust are more likely to make it into the lower deserts. #azwx pic.twitter.com/p4Rjho03j9
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 13, 2025
The amount of moisture across south central Arizona is expected to be high over the next couple of days, likely resulting in thunderstorms. The best chances for precipitation will be in the higher-terrain areas of Phoenix’s surrounding mountains. Still, Phoenix residents could see some “very gusty winds” starting Wednesday night, a 30-40% chance of rainfall on Thursday and a 50% chance of thunderstorms and rain on Friday afternoon into the evening, said NWS meteorologist Mark O’Malley.
However, thunderstorms during Phoenix’s summer are “highly variable” when it comes to rainfall amounts, O’Malley said. This could mean that some residents don’t see any rain at all.
“There will be some areas across the metro area that see nothing whatsoever, zero,” O’Malley said. “There may be other areas that could see upwards of a quarter (to a) half inch, or possibly even more, very localized. But that’s pretty common for summer thunderstorm activity.”
The rainfall is expected to slightly cool temperatures amid a sweltering August. Phoenix has been under a persistent extreme heat warning that will continue into Wednesday evening, but O’Malley said that with “increased moisture and thunderstorm activity,” temperatures will “slowly decrease” over the next several days. Instead of being nearly 10 degrees above the average, temperatures will cool back to normal for this time of year. However, that’s still around 105 degrees.
Monsoon storm activity is expected to ramp up over the next several days with chances extending into the lower deserts. Strong winds capable of generating blowing dust will be the primary concerns along with brief locally heavy rainfall. #azwx pic.twitter.com/w1jJeDeRxA
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) August 13, 2025
The storm comes amid Phoenix’s quiet 2025 monsoon season, which has been “largely below the monsoon normal for this time of year,” O’Malley said. There’s only been one other instance of monsoon activity in the city so far this year. That happened in early July when residents experienced gusty winds and sporadic rainfall. Conditions this time around are expected to be similar, O’Malley said.
“It’s been fairly quiet as far as thunderstorms this summer so far,” O’Malley said. “But we still have over a month to go in the monsoon this year.”
Phoenix has received 0.16 inches of monsoon rainfall so far this year, which would be the second-driest monsoon ever over a full year.
