New Phoenix summer forecast released: Here’s what to expect

Phoenix’s last two summers were the hottest on record. It’s unlikely that this summer will break the record for the third year in a row — but it’s not impossible.

“Statistically speaking, it doesn’t seem like we’re going to be looking at temperatures exceeding or reaching those levels for a third time,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Worley. “Is it completely out of the question? Absolutely not.”

According to the NWS’s Climate Prediction Center, Phoenix temperatures are expected to be above normal this year. There are average rain chances at the beginning of summer, with May and June typically being the driest months for the city. When monsoon season begins toward mid-summer, the chances of rain increase to above normal.


In 2023, Phoenix’s heat was the hottest summer on record to that point. That July, residents suffered through a 31-day streak of high temperatures at or above 110 degrees, making it the hottest month ever recorded in a U.S. city. You’d think that summer would go down in the history books, but last summer quickly dethroned it.

The summer of 2024 broke several records, including having 70 days of temperatures reaching 110 degrees. Additionally, last summer saw hot temperatures deep into October, with the last 100-degree day nearly reaching November.

Worley — and probably every Arizonan — hopes this summer will offer a relative break in the trend. But another run for the record books isn’t out of the question. This year has already seen its fair share of high temperatures. The first 100-degree day was April 10, 22 days before the average first triple-digit day of May 2. The next day, April 11, reached 103 degrees.

Residents can also expect to start experiencing days that are 90 degrees or warmer every day fairly soon.


“It won’t be too much longer once we’re seeing those consistent 90s and even into the triple digits by the end of the month,” Worley said.

So, buckle up, Phoenix. Stock up on sunscreen, drink lots of water, pull out that sunshade and find a restaurant with good patio misters. Even if it falls short of historic, the summer will be hot.