Weather

Phoenix Fourth of July weather forecast: Here’s what to expect

It's going to be hot. But it also could be a lot worse.
a view overlooking a pond at steele indian school park, beyond which are office buildings in midtown phoenix. an american flag flies on a pole.
Steele Indian School Park.

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The Fourth of July is quickly approaching. Between coordinating hot dog purchases for the grill, trying to figure out which resort pool might be the least crowded and buying anti-anxiety treats for fireworks-averse pets, you’ve got a lot to think about. 

Well, we’re happy to say, you can take one thing off your plate: the weather. 

After a record-breaking hot spring — including the earliest 100-degree day documented in Phoenix — we’re getting a reprieve this weekend from the blistering heat so we can focus on celebrating our country’s 250th birthday. Don’t get us wrong. It will be hot. But hot in a normal Phoenix kind of way and not in a hellfire-heat-dome-spreading-across-the-rest-of-the-country kind of way. 

After a few days of below-average temperatures, we’re going to warm up just a little bit to perfectly average. The lows will hover around 83 degrees Fahrenheit and the highs will range from 102 to 107 degrees across the Phoenix area. The Fourth itself is forecast to be 107 degrees — the daily normal at Sky Harbor Airport, where the National Weather Service measures the temperature.

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“You can’t really get a more typical day for July Fourth in our forecast,” said NWS meteorologist Theodore Whittock.

The weekend is going to be dry, he said, with nice breezes of about 15 to 20 miles per hour in the afternoons and possibly some partly cloudy skies. It will be typical weather for this time of year. But that doesn’t mean we should get overly confident. There’s still moderate heat risk, Whittock said, so be aware and stay hydrated.

This especially applies if you live in the urban corridor near Interstate 10 and downtown Phoenix, where temperatures are typically hotter.

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“As you head into this weekend, if you’re attending outdoor activities, just be sure to keep that in mind,” Whittock said. 

Also keep fire safety top of mind if you decide to set off fireworks (legally we hope). The recent combination of dry air, high winds, and heat has created ample fuel for fires, Whittock said. While the atypically strong and deep low-pressure system that caused the strong gusts will have moved on by the weekend, that doesn’t mean that fire danger has blown off with them. 

It may not be windy, but it will still be dry and hot. 

“If there’s sparks or things that you’re doing that might cause fires to start,” Whittock said, it’s going to be easy for them to start.”

Finally, watch out for particularly bad air in the Valley towards the end of the weekend. We’re already susceptible to inversions in which cool, dense air gets trapped with pollution under warm, less-dense air, creating smog. 

A weekend filled with fireworks certainly won’t help. 

“I would not be surprised to see some very poor air quality as a result of something like particulate matter build-up from all those fireworks,” Whittock said.

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