Kelly's Lead Over McSally Shrinks in Latest Poll

Mark Kelly and Martha McSally
Mark Kelly and Martha McSally Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia commons
Democrat Mark Kelly continues to lead Republican Martha McSally in Arizona's 2020 Senate race, according to a poll released on Wednesday.

But McSally has gained ground in Kelly for the first time since OH Predictive Insights has conducted quarterly polls on the race.

In a representative survey of 628 likely Arizona voters, Kelly had 47 percent support compared with McSally's 44. The results represent a 2 percent gain for McSally since OH Predictive Insights last polled the race in August.

Mike Noble, chief of research and managing partner of the Phoenix-based firm that conducted the poll, cited the ongoing impeachment attempt against President Donald Trump as a potential explanation for McSally's rise.

Noble told Phoenix New Times that, while Arizonans are divided on the issue along predictable partisan lines, the critical independent voter leans against impeachment.

"Impeachment is a pretty big deal," Noble said. "I would tend to believe that, along with the trend nationally, this is working against the Democrats here."

The other stat that stood out for Noble was a tremendous gender gap in support for Kelly and McSally. Kelly has 53 percent support among women compared with McSally's 38 percent. On the flip side, McSally has 51 percent support among men compared with Kelly's 41 percent.

Kelly also has stronger support among one of the key demographics in Arizona: older voters. Forty-seven percent of people over the age of 55 said they would vote for Kelly compared with 43 percent who said they would vote for McSally.
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Steven Hsieh was a staff writer for Phoenix New Times from August 2018 to April 2020.
Contact: Steven Hsieh