What happens to trans Arizonans if Katie Hobbs loses in 2026?

Every year for much of this decade, Arizona Republicans voted to pass a series of anti-transgender bills.

There are bills that ban trans kids from using bathrooms that correspond to their identities. There are bills to prohibit the use of preferred pronouns in schools. All of them, said Democratic state Sen. Lauren Kuby, are “mean-spirited, unnecessary and unconstitutional.”

Since Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs took office in 2023, they’ve also been unsigned. Hobbs has unfailingly vetoed any proposed law that attacks LGBTQ people.

Hobbs has been a key safeguard for trans people in Arizona. But the political winds have changed since she took office. In November, Donald Trump cruised to a victory in Arizona and nationally, while the GOP increased its majority in the Arizona Legislature. Trump’s administration is now eagerly attempting to wipe trans people from public life, with Arizona Republicans cheering along.

Hobbs is up for reelection in 2026, and her prospects appear murky. What happens to trans people, Democrats and LGBTQ folks wonder, if she loses?

“I’m so grateful that we have Katie Hobbs as governor now,” said Kuby, who represents Tempe. “But I look to the future, and it is deeply concerning.”

Republicans have certainly given Hobbs’ veto pen a workout. During her first two years in office, Hobbs vetoed at least six pieces of anti-trans legislation. Twice she vetoed an anti-trans bathroom bill from state Sen. John Kavanagh. She also vetoed a Kavanagh bill about pronouns. Kavanagh is running both bills again this year.

In her veto letters, Hobbs has left no mystery about why she rejected the bills.

“As politicians across the country continue to pass harmful legislation directed at transgender youth, I have a clear message to the people of Arizona,” Hobbs wrote while vetoing Kavanagh’s bathroom bill in 2023. “I will veto every bill that aims to attack and harm children.”

All of those bills likely would have become law had Kari Lake beat Hobbs in 2022. The same likely would be true if Hobbs were to lose in next year’s election. State Republicans certainly haven’t let up the anti-trans pressure.

This session, the Trans Legislative Tracker identifies nine anti-trans bills making their way through the Arizona Legislature right now. State Rep. Patty Contreras, who chairs the LGBTQ+ Caucus in the Arizona House, said Republicans don’t “even seem to try to understand where (the trans community) is coming from,” when young people come to speak out against these bills.

“The Republicans are very emboldened by the Trump presidency,” said Democratic Rep. Nancy Gutierrez, who represents Tucson. “They’re grasping at that moment to push these really heartbreaking and really infuriating bills.”

Looking at 2026

Hobbs’ possible opponents in her reelection bid can hardly be expected to stand up for trans people. One GOP candidate is U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, a far-right extremist who’ll happily rubber-stamp anything Trump wants. The other is Karrin Taylor Robson, a rich and supposedly moderate Republican who has recently been loudly cheerleading for Trump, who in turn has endorsed her.

“Biggs would be on the extreme end of the scale,” Kuby said. But Robson is catering to the base, and “right now that base seems to support discrimination,” she said.

Being a “moderate” Republican means little to the trans community in Arizona. After all, former GOP Gov. Doug Ducey wouldn’t have been labeled as a MAGA Republican during his eight years in office, yet he also signed a 2022 bill to bar trans girls from playing youth and college sports. That bill was blocked by the courts, though it may be taken up by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, a Democrat, has declined to defend that bill as it has made its way through the courts. Mayes — who has sued to block many of Trump’s executive orders, including one withholding funding from health care institutions that offer gender-affirming care to trans kids — is also up for reelection in 2026. Notably, her likely opponent is Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen, who has been pushing to get the Supreme Court to reinstate the anti-trans sports bill.

Democrats haven’t held majorities in both chambers of the legislature in decades, so there’s little to stop anti-trans bills from sailing through each. While Mayes has offered a bulwark against federal efforts to hurt trans people, Hobbs has ensured that Republicans don’t hurt what Contreras called “such a very small minority of our population.”

Without that shield, those anti-trans attacks will land with ferocity.

“It’s sad that we can’t necessarily rely on a Republican governor, if there was a Republican governor, to not discriminate against people,” Kuby said. “That’s why we have to double down and work to reelect Katie.”