Poll Shows Trump Tied With Biden and Buttigieg in Arizona

Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg
Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia Commons
President Donald Trump is in a statistical tie among Arizona voters with Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, according to a poll released on Monday.

OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based research firm, surveyed 628 likely Arizona voters on December 3 and 4. The firm tested five Democratic candidates against President Trump and found that two moderate front-runners are the most competitive contenders against the Republican incumbent.

The poll also found that Trump does not have more than 50 percent support against any of the tested candidates.

“Depending on who Democrats select as their nominee, the Grand Canyon State may be in for one of the tightest presidential races in memory,” said Mike Noble, chief of research and managing partner of OH Predictive Insights, in a press release.

Forty-four percent of voters said they would vote for Biden over Trump in an election held today. Trump, meanwhile, has 46 percent support against Biden in the poll, which has a margin of error of 3.91 percent. While Biden topped the other four Democratic candidates, his margin fell seven points since an OH Predictive Insights poll in May that had the former vice president leading Trump 49 to 44.

As Biden's support has fallen among Arizona voters, Buttigieg's has risen. The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has 43 percent support versus 45 percent for Trump. That's a nine-point rise from May.

Candidates further left on the political spectrum have less support in Arizona, according to the poll. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is behind Trump at 41 to 47 percent, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders trails 34 to 47 percent.

OH Predictive Insights also asked Arizona voters to weigh recently announced candidate Michael Bloomberg against Trump. The former New York City mayor, who has already spent more than half a million dollars in Arizona, has 40 percent support against Trump's 47 percent.

“No Democrat has earned more than 47 percent in a presidential election here since LBJ in 1964, but given this President’s apparent ceiling, that might just be enough to win when November rolls around,” data analyst Jacob Joss was quoted as saying in the news release.
KEEP PHOENIX NEW TIMES FREE... Since we started Phoenix New Times, it has been defined as the free, independent voice of Phoenix, and we'd like to keep it that way. With local media under siege, it's more important than ever for us to rally support behind funding our local journalism. You can help by participating in our "I Support" program, allowing us to keep offering readers access to our incisive coverage of local news, food and culture with no paywalls.
Steven Hsieh was a staff writer for Phoenix New Times from August 2018 to April 2020.
Contact: Steven Hsieh