New Phoenix fall forecast released. Here’s what to expect

Halloween night sets Phoenix apart from much of the United States. That's because while most of the country is enjoying brisk air and changing leaves, Oct. 31 is still a hot desert night here.

According to the National Weather Service, that’s not likely to change this year. If anything, it will be hotter.

A new fall forecast released by the agency’s Climate Prediction Center predicts hotter-than-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation across Arizona in September, October and November.

The Grand Canyon State is not alone when it comes to elevated temperatures. Other than the Pacific coast and part of Alaska, the majority of the country is expected to be hotter than normal.


But that likely won’t stop Starbucks from serving pumpkin spice products in the coming days.

The fall predictions are in line with Phoenix's hot summer. June was the hottest one ever registered in the Valley, and July was the second-hottest one on record after July 2023.

The American Southwest is one of the regions that’s most likely to be hotter than normal, with the Four Corners having the highest probability of an abnormally sweltering autumn.

Temperatures are likely to be higher-than-normal “across a majority of the contiguous U.S. with the largest probabilities (exceeding 60%) forecast for New England and parts of the Southwest,” the Climate Prediction Center explained.


And while the U.S. Drought Monitor recently has brought good news for Arizona, the fall is expected to be dry. The entire state has a 40% to 50% chance of less-than-normal precipitation, according to the NWS. Only the East Coast, Washington and Oregon are expected to see above-average precipitation during the autumn months.